Version 0.4-draft · adopted: not yet
The American Five Year Plan, 2028–2032
A national plan written by civilians. 27 indicators, each with a baseline from a public agency, a 2032 target anchored to a rate somebody has already reached, a value for every year from 2028 to 2032, and, where the outcome is a public body’s to deliver, the name of that body. Scored every July 4.
11 binding · 13 anticipatory · 3 guard · mid-term evaluation 2030
| # | Indicator | Baseline | 2032 target | Type | Body scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prosperity and solvency | |||||
| 1 | Real median household income | $87,460 | $100,000 | Anticipatory | — |
| 2 | Federal deficit, share of GDP | 5.9% (FY2025) | 3.0% or less (FY2032) | Binding | Congress and the President |
| 3 | Debt held by the public, share of GDP | 99.5% (FY2025) | Below 106.1% in every year | Binding | Congress and the President |
| 4 | Social Security and Medicare hospital insurance solvency | Depletion projected Q4 2032 and Q2 2033 | Law restoring 75-year balance signed by end of 2030 | Binding | Congress |
| EnergyRow 6 is the AI Transition Tracker's energy number carried into the plan: the firm capacity the J-Curve model says must be built, cut at 2032. | |||||
| 5 | Utility-scale generating capacity added per year | 53 GW (2025) | 100 GW a year from 2030 onward | Anticipatory | — |
| 6 | New firm generating capacity added to the grid since 2024, cumulative | About 2 GW in 2025 (18 TWh/yr of new firm-equivalent supply) | 170 GW by 2032, on the path to 243 by 2035 | Anticipatory | — |
| 7 | Median years from interconnection request to operation | Over 4 (plants built 2018–2024) | Under 2 | Binding | FERC and the grid operators |
| 8 | Transmission energized per year, 100 kV and above | 3,300 (2011–2020 average) | 4,100 | Anticipatory | — |
| 9 | Median years to complete an environmental impact statement | 2.2 (2024) | 1.5, with none over 2 | Binding | Federal lead agencies and CEQ |
| 10 | Average retail electricity price, all sectors, real | 12.94 ¢/kWh (2024) | No higher than 2024 in real terms | Guard | — |
| 11 | Large power transformer lead time | 36–60 months (2024) | Under 12 months | Anticipatory | — |
| The rebuildThe Moses-Jacobs Act is this chapter's vehicle. The plan's window is the Act's first five years, and this scorecard is the midpoint test the Act requires and never defines. | |||||
| 12 | Housing starts per year | 1.36 million (2025) | 2.0 million a year from 2030 onward | Anticipatory | — |
| 13 | Share of ASCE's ten-year infrastructure need that is funded | 59% ($5.4 of $9.1 trillion) | 100% | Anticipatory | — |
| 14 | Federal outlays under the rebuild law, cumulative | $0 (no law) | $637 billion by end of FY2032 | Binding | Congress and the Mission Board |
| 15 | Tier 0 micro-projects completed under the Fast Lane, cumulative | 0 | 250,000 | Binding | The Regional Delivery Authorities |
| 16 | Lead service lines replaced | 0 of 4.0 million | 2.4 million | Binding | EPA and the water systems |
| 17 | Share of rebuild dollars published within 72 hours of the transaction | 0% (USAspending reports monthly; 0–1% of records fully consistent) | 100%, in every year | Binding | The Mission Board |
| 18 | Ledger-verified fraud loss, share of rebuild outlays | Recovery Act: 144 convictions, about $1.9 million of $800 billion | Under 0.5% in every year | Guard | — |
| 19 | Construction producer prices, trailing twelve months | +5.2% (year to July 2026); +30.3% over 2020–2024 | Under 6% in any two consecutive quarters | Guard | — |
| The frontier | |||||
| 20 | Federal R&D outlays, share of GDP | 0.6% (FY2025) | 1.2% | Binding | Congress |
| 21 | Total R&D, share of GDP | 3.4% (2024) | 4.5% | Anticipatory | — |
| 22 | Manufacturing labor productivity growth per year | −0.16% a year (2010–2025) | 3.0% a year | Anticipatory | — |
| 23 | Commercial ships built in US yards per year | Fewer than 5 | 35 | Anticipatory | — |
| 24 | Critical minerals that depend on a non-allied country for most of their supply | 8 with China as primary source; 33 over 50% import-reliant (2025) | 0 | Anticipatory | — |
| The people | |||||
| 25 | Life expectancy at birth | 79.0 (2024) | 80.6 | Anticipatory | — |
| 26 | Child poverty, Supplemental Poverty Measure | 13.4% (2024) | 5.2% or less | Binding | Congress |
| 27 | Fourth-graders at or above NAEP Proficient in reading | 31% (2024) | 40%, passing 35% by 2030 | Anticipatory | — |
Hover a column heading for what it means. Open a row for what it measures, why it is in the plan, and its path year by year. Scoring begins with the first July 4 scorecard after adoption; until then the table is a proposal. The energy rows are already tracked on the AI Transition Tracker.
Rows waiting for an anchor
A row with no demonstrated rate, statute or official estimate stays out of Table 1 until it has one.
| Indicator | Baseline | What it needs | Chapter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projects completed against the needs matrix, Ledger-verified | 0 of about 900,000 projects in the Act's 816-row matrix ($9.8 trillion) | the Mission Ledger's public feed (Act Sec. 301); until it exists there is no source of record, and outlays (row 14) stand in | rebuild |
| States signed to Mission Compacts | 0; the Act's roadmap expects forty-plus governors within three years | the Mission Board's published compact register (Act Sec. 106); the anchor exists: 41 states including DC adopted Medicaid expansion | rebuild |
| Registered apprentices in the building trades | 660,000 active (GAO-25-107040); the Act's Academy Network sizes cohorts annually | a current DOL baseline reconciled with GAO's figure, and the German or Swiss share of the youth cohort as the anchor | rebuild |
| Programmatic Master Reviews completed | 0; the Act requires one per mission category within 18 months of the Board's first meeting | the Board to exist; then CEQ's programmatic review register | rebuild |
| Bridges in poor condition | 41,685, 6.7% of the inventory (2025) | the fastest state rate of clearing poor bridges, 2015–2025, from the National Bridge Inventory by owner | rebuild |
| Nuclear capacity under construction | 97 GW operating, 94 reactors | reactors brought online per year in the 1970s–80s (NRC Information Digest) or France's Messmer rate | energy |
| Data-center load energized per year | 176 TWh used in 2023; 325–580 TWh projected by 2028 (LBNL) | an anchor for a supply-matched pace; the tracker's compute row is the working version | energy |
| Prime-age labor force participation | 83.4% (August 2026) | the record high from the BLS historical series | people |
| Navy battle force ships delivered on schedule | all 37 ships GAO analysed were behind schedule | a demonstrated on-time rate; contract and projected delivery dates per hull | frontier |
| Improper payments | $186 billion (FY2025) | a peer or historical rate; Treasury Office of Payment Integrity results | solvency |
| Transit cost per kilometer | US sixth most expensive; global average near $252 million/km | the Transit Costs Project country table with the US row | rebuild |
| National service positions | AmeriCorps and Peace Corps annual counts | a CCC-era or peer-country rate | people |
| Value per kWh of AI compute (AIROI) | about $0.50 per kWh (2025), the J-Curve paper's estimate | a measured series; the tracker carries it as an estimate-flagged row | frontier |
Rules that protect the numbers
- Path
- Every row carries one value per plan year. Unless a row says otherwise the path is linear from the baseline year to 2032; rows that step (5, 10) or follow an exam calendar (20) or a statute clock (4, 12) say so in path_note.
- Anchor
- demonstrated = a pace the US, a state or a peer country has reached; statute = a deadline or standard in federal law; estimate = a need quantified by a public or professional body; act = a provision of the Moses-Jacobs Act, the plan's legislative vehicle for the rebuild, with the public source behind it; model = a requirement computed by the plan's own open model from public inputs (the J-Curve white paper and its project ledger), with the code and the inputs published; guard = a row that protects another row. No target without an anchor.
- Binding
- an outcome a named public body holds the legal authority to deliver; the body is scored every year.
- Anticipatory
- an outcome firms, households, builders and scientists deliver once public bodies have made the decisions that are theirs; tracked, with the public decisions that delay it reported.
- Guard
- a row that fails the plan if another row is met at its expense.
- Vehicle
- The Moses-Jacobs Act (a white paper in ten chapters and a draft statute, local at ~/Work/personal/moses-jacobs-act/) is the legislative vehicle for the rebuild chapter. Its ten-year window is FY2028–2037; the plan's window is its first five years. Sec. 404(d) of the Act requires a midpoint report at the end of FY2032 stating Ledger-verified real output against plan, and its first hundred days publish the scorecard format before the first dollar moves. This table is that plan and that scorecard. Rows 13 through 19 are the Act's; rows 9, 11, 12 and 24 name its mechanisms.
- Data
- The plan’s authors never produce the plan’s data. Every row is measured by the agency named on it.
- Change
- Rows change only at the mid-term with a two-thirds vote of the convention, and every change is logged with its reason.
Draft lineage: vault: Projects/personal/seriousness/The American Seven Year Plan — First Draft.md (2026-09-19), re-anchored to 2032.
Pick a fight with a row
Tell us which anchor is wrong, which body is misnamed, which target is too timid. The convention that adopts this table needs several hundred people who each know one industry better than its authors know any of them. Applications for the drafting workshops, one per chapter, open with the essay.