The American Five Year PlanProsperity and solvencyRow 4
Social Security and Medicare hospital insurance solvency
Depletion projected Q4 2032 and Q2 2033Law restoring 75-year balance signed by end of 2030
Binding scored on Congresslaw
Why this row
The 2026 Trustees Reports project the Social Security retirement trust fund depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032 and Medicare's hospital insurance fund in the second quarter of 2033. At depletion, continuing revenue covers about 83% and 89% of scheduled benefits. Restoring 75-year balance in 2026 would take a payroll tax increase of 4.25 points or a benefit reduction of 25.2%, and waiting makes the adjustment larger. The row is a law, not a number: a commission on the base-closure model chartered in 2028, reporting in 2029, and one vote on the whole package by the end of 2030. The window closes in the retirement fund's depletion year.
The path
| 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| commission chartered | commission reports | single vote, law signed | in force | in force |
milestones on the base-closure model; the window closes in the retirement fund's depletion year
Each July 4 the row shows its baseline, this path, the latest official value and a status of ahead, on schedule or behind. As a binding row it also links the decisions by Congress that moved the number during the year.