The American Five Year PlanThe frontierRow 23
Commercial ships built in US yards per year
Fewer than 535
Anticipatoryships
Why this row
American yards build fewer than 5 commercial ships a year against more than 70 in 1975. The Navy had 296 battle force ships in 2024 and projects 294 for 2030, while China's navy has more than 370. The United States built 2,751 Liberty ships in four years. The row's ramp follows the order book, which leads deliveries by about three years, and the mechanism is one pooled multi-year order book large enough for yards to invest against.
The path
| 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 12 | 18 | 26 | 35 |
a ramp, since an order book leads deliveries by about three years; the order book is the leading signal
Each July 4 the row shows its baseline, this path, the latest official value and a status of ahead, on schedule or behind. As an anticipatory row it reports the public decisions that delayed it.